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DSC vs Sonacos — Ligue 1 2019

DSC
DSC
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sonacos
Sonacos
5/2/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 22Stade Municipal de Yoff

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

DSC40%
×Draw34%
Sonacos26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

DSC
0.97
Sonacos
0.73

DSC creates 33% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 56 away

creates per match

DSC
0.99
Sonacos
0.63

allows per match

DSC
0.84
Sonacos
0.96

finishing

DSC+0.00on par
Sonacos+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

DSC ↓

Sonacos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

DSC or draw
74%
DSC or Sonacos
66%
Draw or Sonacos
60%

Winning margin

DSC wins by 2+
15%
Sonacos wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

DSC 1+ goals
62%
DSC 2+ goals
25%
DSC 3+ goals
7%
Sonacos 1+ goals
52%
Sonacos 2+ goals
17%
Sonacos 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

DSC (draw refunded)
60%
Sonacos (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

DSC at home — creates 0.99, concedes 0.84 · 87 matches

Sonacos away — creates 0.63, concedes 0.96 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

DSC attack 0.99 + Sonacos defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.97

Sonacos attack 0.63 + DSC defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

DSC scores more
40%
level
34%
Sonacos scores more
26%

DSC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "DSC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

DSC 0 – 2 Sonacos

Sonacos beat DSC 2-0 in Ligue 1 on May 2, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Yoff in Dakar.