DSC 1–3 Jamono Fatick: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

DSC

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Jamono Fatick

4/13/2024

Ligue 1 · Round 20Stade de Ngor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

DSC42%

×Draw31%

Jamono Fatick27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DSCExpected goals in this matchJamono Fatick

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.81

DSC

1.10

Jamono Fatick

0.81

DSC creates 36% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 28 away

0.99

creates per match

0.79

0.84

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

DSC

0.99

Jamono Fatick

0.79

allows per match

DSC

0.84

Jamono Fatick

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

DSC+0.00on par

Jamono Fatick+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

DSC ↓

Jamono Fatick →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

DSC or draw

73%

DSC or Jamono Fatick

69%

Draw or Jamono Fatick

58%

Winning margin

DSC wins by 2+

17%

Jamono Fatick wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

DSC 1+ goals

67%

DSC 2+ goals

30%

DSC 3+ goals

10%

Jamono Fatick 1+ goals

56%

Jamono Fatick 2+ goals

19%

Jamono Fatick 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

DSC (draw refunded)

61%

Jamono Fatick (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

DSC at home — creates 0.99, concedes 0.84 · 87 matches

Jamono Fatick away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

DSC attack 0.99 + Jamono Fatick defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.10

Jamono Fatick attack 0.79 + DSC defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

DSC scores more

42%

level

31%

Jamono Fatick scores more

27%

DSC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "DSC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff