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DSC vs Génération Foot — Ligue 1 2019

DSC
DSC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Génération Foot
Génération Foot
5/18/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 24Stade Amadou Barry

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

DSC34%
×Draw33%
Génération Foot34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

DSC
0.91
Génération Foot
0.91

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 87 home / 88 away

creates per match

DSC
0.99
Génération Foot
0.98

allows per match

DSC
0.84
Génération Foot
0.83

finishing

DSC+0.00on par
Génération Foot+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

DSC ↓

Génération Foot →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

DSC or draw
66%
DSC or Génération Foot
67%
Draw or Génération Foot
66%

Winning margin

DSC wins by 2+
12%
Génération Foot wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

DSC 1+ goals
60%
DSC 2+ goals
23%
DSC 3+ goals
6%
Génération Foot 1+ goals
60%
Génération Foot 2+ goals
23%
Génération Foot 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

DSC (draw refunded)
50%
Génération Foot (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

DSC at home — creates 0.99, concedes 0.84 · 87 matches

Génération Foot away — creates 0.98, concedes 0.83 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

DSC attack 0.99 + Génération Foot defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.91

Génération Foot attack 0.98 + DSC defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

DSC scores more
34%
level
33%
Génération Foot scores more
34%

DSC at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "DSC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: DSC 0–0 Génération Foot

DSC and Génération Foot drew 0-0 in Ligue 1 on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Amadou Barry in Guédiawaye.