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DSC vs CNEPS Excellence — Ligue 1 2019

DSC
DSC
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
CNEPS Excellence
CNEPS Excellence
5/14/2022Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 22Stade Alassane Djigo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

DSC49%
×Draw30%
CNEPS Excellence21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

DSC
1.24
CNEPS Excellence
0.70

DSC creates 77% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 45 away

creates per match

DSC
0.99
CNEPS Excellence
0.56

allows per match

DSC
0.84
CNEPS Excellence
1.49

finishing

DSC+0.00on par
CNEPS Excellence+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

DSC ↓

CNEPS Excellence →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

DSC or draw
79%
DSC or CNEPS Excellence
70%
Draw or CNEPS Excellence
51%

Winning margin

DSC wins by 2+
22%
CNEPS Excellence wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

DSC 1+ goals
71%
DSC 2+ goals
35%
DSC 3+ goals
13%
CNEPS Excellence 1+ goals
50%
CNEPS Excellence 2+ goals
16%
CNEPS Excellence 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

DSC (draw refunded)
70%
CNEPS Excellence (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

DSC at home — creates 0.99, concedes 0.84 · 87 matches

CNEPS Excellence away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.49 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

DSC attack 0.99 + CNEPS Excellence defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.24

CNEPS Excellence attack 0.56 + DSC defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

DSC scores more
49%
level
30%
CNEPS Excellence scores more
21%

DSC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "DSC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: DSC 3–0 CNEPS Excellence

DSC beat CNEPS Excellence 3-0 in Ligue 1 on May 14, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Alassane Djigo in Pikine.