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DSC vs ASEC Ndiambour — Ligue 1 2019

DSC
DSC
FT
4 – 1
ASEC Ndiambour
ASEC Ndiambour
7/3/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 23Stade Alassane Djigo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

DSC49%
×Draw31%
ASEC Ndiambour20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

DSC
1.17
ASEC Ndiambour
0.64

DSC creates 83% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 32 away

creates per match

DSC
0.99
ASEC Ndiambour
0.44

allows per match

DSC
0.84
ASEC Ndiambour
1.34

finishing

DSC+0.00on par
ASEC Ndiambour+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

DSC ↓

ASEC Ndiambour →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

DSC or draw
80%
DSC or ASEC Ndiambour
69%
Draw or ASEC Ndiambour
51%

Winning margin

DSC wins by 2+
21%
ASEC Ndiambour wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

DSC 1+ goals
69%
DSC 2+ goals
33%
DSC 3+ goals
11%
ASEC Ndiambour 1+ goals
47%
ASEC Ndiambour 2+ goals
14%
ASEC Ndiambour 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

DSC (draw refunded)
71%
ASEC Ndiambour (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

DSC at home — creates 0.99, concedes 0.84 · 87 matches

ASEC Ndiambour away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

DSC attack 0.99 + ASEC Ndiambour defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.17

ASEC Ndiambour attack 0.44 + DSC defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

DSC scores more
49%
level
31%
ASEC Ndiambour scores more
20%

DSC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "DSC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: DSC 4–1 ASEC Ndiambour

DSC beat ASEC Ndiambour 4-1 in Ligue 1 on July 3, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Alassane Djigo in Pikine.