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Družstevník Plavnica vs Spišské Podhradie — 3. liga - East 2020

Družstevník Plavnica
Družstevník Plavnica
FT
4 – 2
Spišské Podhradie
Spišské Podhradie
9/6/20203. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 7Futbalový štadión FK Družstevník Plavnica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Družstevník Plavnica70%
×Draw18%
Spišské Podhradie13%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Družstevník Plavnica
2.37
Spišské Podhradie
0.90

Družstevník Plavnica creates 163% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 65 away

creates per match

Družstevník Plavnica
1.88
Spišské Podhradie
0.80

allows per match

Družstevník Plavnica
1.00
Spišské Podhradie
2.86

finishing

Družstevník Plavnica+0.00on par
Spišské Podhradie+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Družstevník Plavnica ↓

Spišské Podhradie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Družstevník Plavnica or draw
87%
Družstevník Plavnica or Spišské Podhradie
82%
Draw or Spišské Podhradie
30%

Winning margin

Družstevník Plavnica wins by 2+
47%
Spišské Podhradie wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Družstevník Plavnica 1+ goals
91%
Družstevník Plavnica 2+ goals
68%
Družstevník Plavnica 3+ goals
42%
Spišské Podhradie 1+ goals
59%
Spišské Podhradie 2+ goals
23%
Spišské Podhradie 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Družstevník Plavnica (draw refunded)
85%
Spišské Podhradie (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Družstevník Plavnica at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Spišské Podhradie away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.86 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Družstevník Plavnica attack 1.88 + Spišské Podhradie defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.37

Spišské Podhradie attack 0.80 + Družstevník Plavnica defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Družstevník Plavnica scores more
70%
level
18%
Spišské Podhradie scores more
13%

Družstevník Plavnica at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Družstevník Plavnica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - East: Družstevník Plavnica 4–2 Spišské Podhradie

Družstevník Plavnica beat Spišské Podhradie 4-2 in 3. liga - East on September 6, 2020.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión FK Družstevník Plavnica in Plavnica.