Družstevník Plavnica 2–2 MSK Tesla Stropkov

Družstevník Plavnica

FT

2 – 2

MSK Tesla Stropkov

5/30/2021

3. liga - East · East - 13Futbalový štadión FK Družstevník Plavnica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Družstevník Plavnica48%

×Draw23%

MSK Tesla Stropkov28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Družstevník PlavnicaExpected goals in this matchMSK Tesla Stropkov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.32

Družstevník Plavnica

1.79

MSK Tesla Stropkov

1.32

Družstevník Plavnica creates 36% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 79 away

1.88

creates per match

1.65

1.00

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Družstevník Plavnica

1.88

MSK Tesla Stropkov

1.65

allows per match

Družstevník Plavnica

1.00

MSK Tesla Stropkov

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Družstevník Plavnica+0.00on par

MSK Tesla Stropkov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Družstevník Plavnica ↓

MSK Tesla Stropkov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Družstevník Plavnica or draw

72%

Družstevník Plavnica or MSK Tesla Stropkov

77%

Draw or MSK Tesla Stropkov

52%

Winning margin

Družstevník Plavnica wins by 2+

26%

MSK Tesla Stropkov wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Družstevník Plavnica 1+ goals

83%

Družstevník Plavnica 2+ goals

53%

Družstevník Plavnica 3+ goals

26%

MSK Tesla Stropkov 1+ goals

73%

MSK Tesla Stropkov 2+ goals

38%

MSK Tesla Stropkov 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Družstevník Plavnica (draw refunded)

63%

MSK Tesla Stropkov (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Družstevník Plavnica at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

MSK Tesla Stropkov away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.71 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Družstevník Plavnica attack 1.88 + MSK Tesla Stropkov defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.79

MSK Tesla Stropkov attack 1.65 + Družstevník Plavnica defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Družstevník Plavnica scores more

48%

level

23%

MSK Tesla Stropkov scores more

28%

Družstevník Plavnica at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Družstevník Plavnica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff