Druzhba 0–1 Sochi II: Result & Stats

Druzhba

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sochi II

6/25/2025

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 16Adygeyskiy Respublikanskiy Stadion Druzhba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Druzhba39%

×Draw26%

Sochi II35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DruzhbaExpected goals in this matchSochi II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.32

Druzhba

1.40

Sochi II

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 97 home / 16 away

1.35

creates per match

1.25

1.40

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Druzhba

1.35

Sochi II

1.25

allows per match

Druzhba

1.40

Sochi II

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Druzhba+0.00on par

Sochi II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Druzhba ↓

Sochi II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Druzhba or draw

65%

Druzhba or Sochi II

74%

Draw or Sochi II

61%

Winning margin

Druzhba wins by 2+

18%

Sochi II wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Druzhba 1+ goals

75%

Druzhba 2+ goals

41%

Druzhba 3+ goals

17%

Sochi II 1+ goals

73%

Sochi II 2+ goals

38%

Sochi II 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Druzhba (draw refunded)

52%

Sochi II (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Druzhba at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.40 · 97 matches

Sochi II away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Druzhba attack 1.35 + Sochi II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.40

Sochi II attack 1.25 + Druzhba defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Druzhba scores more

39%

level

26%

Sochi II scores more

35%

Druzhba at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Druzhba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff