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Druzhba vs Krasnodar III — Second League - Group 1 2020

Druzhba
Druzhba
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Krasnodar III
Krasnodar III
10/25/2020Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 12Adygeyskiy Respublikanskiy Stadion Druzhba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Druzhba43%
×Draw25%
Krasnodar III32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Druzhba
1.52
Krasnodar III
1.26

Druzhba creates 21% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 16 away

creates per match

Druzhba
1.35
Krasnodar III
1.13

allows per match

Druzhba
1.40
Krasnodar III
1.69

finishing

Druzhba+0.00on par
Krasnodar III+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Druzhba ↓

Krasnodar III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Druzhba or draw
68%
Druzhba or Krasnodar III
75%
Draw or Krasnodar III
57%

Winning margin

Druzhba wins by 2+
21%
Krasnodar III wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Druzhba 1+ goals
78%
Druzhba 2+ goals
45%
Druzhba 3+ goals
20%
Krasnodar III 1+ goals
72%
Krasnodar III 2+ goals
36%
Krasnodar III 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Druzhba (draw refunded)
58%
Krasnodar III (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Druzhba at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.40 · 97 matches

Krasnodar III away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Druzhba attack 1.35 + Krasnodar III defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.52

Krasnodar III attack 1.13 + Druzhba defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Druzhba scores more
43%
level
25%
Krasnodar III scores more
32%

Druzhba at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Druzhba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Druzhba 1–4 Krasnodar III

Krasnodar III beat Druzhba 4-1 in Second League - Group 1 on October 25, 2020.

The match was played at Adygeyskiy Respublikanskiy Stadion Druzhba in Maykop.