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Druzhba vs Astrakhan — Second League - Group 1 2020

Druzhba
Druzhba
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Astrakhan
Astrakhan
8/3/2024Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 19Adygeyskiy Respublikanskiy Stadion Druzhba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Druzhba37%
×Draw27%
Astrakhan36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Druzhba
1.28
Astrakhan
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 97 home / 47 away

creates per match

Druzhba
1.35
Astrakhan
1.15

allows per match

Druzhba
1.40
Astrakhan
1.21

finishing

Druzhba+0.00on par
Astrakhan+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Druzhba ↓

Astrakhan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Druzhba or draw
64%
Druzhba or Astrakhan
73%
Draw or Astrakhan
63%

Winning margin

Druzhba wins by 2+
16%
Astrakhan wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Druzhba 1+ goals
72%
Druzhba 2+ goals
37%
Druzhba 3+ goals
14%
Astrakhan 1+ goals
72%
Astrakhan 2+ goals
36%
Astrakhan 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Druzhba (draw refunded)
50%
Astrakhan (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Druzhba at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.40 · 97 matches

Astrakhan away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.21 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Druzhba attack 1.35 + Astrakhan defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.28

Astrakhan attack 1.15 + Druzhba defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Druzhba scores more
37%
level
27%
Astrakhan scores more
36%

Druzhba at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Druzhba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Druzhba vs Astrakhan

Astrakhan beat Druzhba 2-1 in Second League - Group 1 on August 3, 2024.

The match was played at Adygeyskiy Respublikanskiy Stadion Druzhba in Maykop.