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Druzhba vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz II — Second League - Group 1 2020

Druzhba
Druzhba
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
4/1/2023Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 22Adygeyskiy Respublikanskiy Stadion Druzhba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Druzhba56%
×Draw23%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Druzhba
1.88
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
1.09

Druzhba creates 72% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 58 away

creates per match

Druzhba
1.35
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
0.78

allows per match

Druzhba
1.40
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
2.41

finishing

Druzhba+0.00on par
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Druzhba ↓

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Druzhba or draw
78%
Druzhba or Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
77%
Draw or Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
44%

Winning margin

Druzhba wins by 2+
32%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Druzhba 1+ goals
85%
Druzhba 2+ goals
56%
Druzhba 3+ goals
29%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 1+ goals
66%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 2+ goals
30%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Druzhba (draw refunded)
72%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Druzhba at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.40 · 97 matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.41 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Druzhba attack 1.35 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz II defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.88

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II attack 0.78 + Druzhba defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Druzhba scores more
56%
level
23%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II scores more
22%

Druzhba at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Druzhba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Druzhba vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

Druzhba beat Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 1-0 in Second League - Group 1 on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Adygeyskiy Respublikanskiy Stadion Druzhba in Maykop.