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Druk Lhayul vs Paro — Premier League 2023

Druk Lhayul
Druk Lhayul
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Paro
Paro
11/16/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Changlimithang National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Druk Lhayul21%
×Draw16%
Paro63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Druk Lhayul
2.09
Paro
3.50

Paro creates 67% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 32 away

creates per match

Druk Lhayul
3.44
Paro
3.88

allows per match

Druk Lhayul
3.11
Paro
0.75

finishing

Druk Lhayul+0.00on par
Paro+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

85%Yes
  • Yes85
  • No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Druk Lhayul ↓

Paro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–33%
0–43%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–36%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–24%
3–34%
3–44%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (6%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
79%21%4.5
63%37%

Double chance

Druk Lhayul or draw
37%
Druk Lhayul or Paro
84%
Draw or Paro
79%

Winning margin

Druk Lhayul wins by 2+
11%
Paro wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Druk Lhayul 1+ goals
88%
Druk Lhayul 2+ goals
62%
Druk Lhayul 3+ goals
34%
Paro 1+ goals
97%
Paro 2+ goals
85%
Paro 3+ goals
66%

Draw no bet

Druk Lhayul (draw refunded)
26%
Paro (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
82%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Druk Lhayul at home — creates 3.44, concedes 3.11 · 9 matches

Paro away — creates 3.88, concedes 0.75 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Druk Lhayul attack 3.44 + Paro defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 2.09

Paro attack 3.88 + Druk Lhayul defence 3.11 → ÷2 → 3.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Druk Lhayul scores more
21%
level
16%
Paro scores more
63%

Paro at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Paro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Druk Lhayul 2–3 Paro

Paro beat Druk Lhayul 3-2 in Premier League on November 16, 2023.

The match was played at Changlimithang National Stadium in Thimphu.