Drogheda United 1–3 St Patrick's Athl.

Drogheda United

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

St Patrick's Athl.

B. Kavanagh 64'

K. Leavy 37'

C. Keeley 34' (OG)

A. Keena 1'

4/17/2026

Premier Division · Round 12Weavers Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Drogheda United38%

×Draw28%

St Patrick's Athl.34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Drogheda UnitedExpected goals in this matchSt Patrick's Athl.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.16

Drogheda United

1.23

St Patrick's Athl.

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 125 away

1.24

creates per match

1.20

1.11

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Drogheda United

1.24

St Patrick's Athl.

1.20

allows per match

Drogheda United

1.11

St Patrick's Athl.

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Drogheda United+0.00on par

St Patrick's Athl.+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drogheda United ↓

St Patrick's Athl. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Drogheda United or draw

66%

Drogheda United or St Patrick's Athl.

72%

Draw or St Patrick's Athl.

62%

Winning margin

Drogheda United wins by 2+

16%

St Patrick's Athl. wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Drogheda United 1+ goals

71%

Drogheda United 2+ goals

35%

Drogheda United 3+ goals

13%

St Patrick's Athl. 1+ goals

69%

St Patrick's Athl. 2+ goals

32%

St Patrick's Athl. 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Drogheda United (draw refunded)

52%

St Patrick's Athl. (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drogheda United at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.11 · 102 matches

St Patrick's Athl. away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.22 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drogheda United attack 1.24 + St Patrick's Athl. defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.23

St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.20 + Drogheda United defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Drogheda United scores more

38%

level

28%

St Patrick's Athl. scores more

34%

Drogheda United at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Drogheda United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

K. Cruise

Drogheda United · D

7.7

Match Events

1'

A. Keena↳ J. Redmond

26'

Shane Farell

33'

Jamie Lennon

34'

C. KeeleyOwn goal

37'

K. Leavy↳ J. Lennon

45'

Conor Kane

46'

R. Brennan← J. Bolger

46'

K. Cruise← C. Kane

46'

D. Kareem← S. Farrell

46'

D. Nugent← K. Leavy

62'

Joe Redmond

62'

C. Forrester← Z. Elbouzedi

62'

64'

65'

81'

87'

C. O'Connor← W. Davis

90+1'

G. Nzingo← R. Edmondson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DroghedaSt

Overview

45%Possession55%

10Total Shots10

1.03Expected Goals (xG)0.56

4Corners4

17Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots10

5On Target6

3Off Target2

2Blocked2

6Inside Box6

4Outside Box4

Passing

45%Possession55%

286Total Passes356

191Accurate Passes245

67%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

17Fouls11

3Yellow Cards3

6Offsides9