Drogheda United 3–2 Shamrock Rovers II

Drogheda United

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Shamrock Rovers II

9/22/2020

First Division · Round 13United Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Drogheda United54%

×Draw23%

Shamrock Rovers II23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Drogheda UnitedExpected goals in this matchShamrock Rovers II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.10

Drogheda United

1.81

Shamrock Rovers II

1.10

Drogheda United creates 65% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 9 away

2.30

creates per match

1.11

1.09

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Drogheda United

2.30

Shamrock Rovers II

1.11

allows per match

Drogheda United

1.09

Shamrock Rovers II

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Drogheda United+0.00on par

Shamrock Rovers II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drogheda United ↓

Shamrock Rovers II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Drogheda United or draw

77%

Drogheda United or Shamrock Rovers II

77%

Draw or Shamrock Rovers II

46%

Winning margin

Drogheda United wins by 2+

30%

Shamrock Rovers II wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Drogheda United 1+ goals

84%

Drogheda United 2+ goals

54%

Drogheda United 3+ goals

27%

Shamrock Rovers II 1+ goals

67%

Shamrock Rovers II 2+ goals

30%

Shamrock Rovers II 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Drogheda United (draw refunded)

70%

Shamrock Rovers II (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drogheda United at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.09 · 23 matches

Shamrock Rovers II away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drogheda United attack 2.30 + Shamrock Rovers II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.81

Shamrock Rovers II attack 1.11 + Drogheda United defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Drogheda United scores more

54%

level

23%

Shamrock Rovers II scores more

23%

Drogheda United at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Drogheda United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff