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Drogheda United vs Athlone Town — FAI Cup 2026

Drogheda United
Drogheda United
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Athlone Town
Athlone Town
R. Brennan 66'
D. Williams 54', 42'
D. Markey 45'
A. Foley 7'
M. McCarrick 84'
7/29/2022FAI CupFAI Cup · 1st RoundHead in the Game Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Drogheda United84%
×Draw10%
Athlone Town6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Drogheda United
3.42
Athlone Town
0.83

Drogheda United creates 312% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

creates per match

Drogheda United
3.18
Athlone Town
0.67

allows per match

Drogheda United
1.00
Athlone Town
3.67

finishing

Drogheda United+0.00on par
Athlone Town+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drogheda United ↓

Athlone Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–14%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Drogheda United or draw
94%
Drogheda United or Athlone Town
90%
Draw or Athlone Town
16%

Winning margin

Drogheda United wins by 2+
67%
Athlone Town wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Drogheda United 1+ goals
97%
Drogheda United 2+ goals
85%
Drogheda United 3+ goals
64%
Athlone Town 1+ goals
56%
Athlone Town 2+ goals
20%
Athlone Town 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Drogheda United (draw refunded)
94%
Athlone Town (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drogheda United at home — creates 3.18, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Athlone Town away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drogheda United attack 3.18 + Athlone Town defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 3.42

Athlone Town attack 0.67 + Drogheda United defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Drogheda United scores more
84%
level
10%
Athlone Town scores more
6%

Drogheda United at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Drogheda United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
A. Foley
42'
D. Williams
45'
D. Markey
54'
D. Williams
66'
R. Brennan
84'
M. McCarrick

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Drogheda United vs Athlone Town

Drogheda United beat Athlone Town 5-1 in FAI Cup on July 29, 2022.

Goals: A. Foley (7'), D. Williams (42', 54'), D. Markey (45'), R. Brennan (66'), M. McCarrick (84').

The match was played at Head in the Game Park in Drogheda.