Drita 0–1 Veleshta: Result & Stats | Second League

Drita

FT

0 – 1

Veleshta

12/5/2020

Second League · West - 15Stadion Bogovinje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Drita42%

×Draw30%

Veleshta28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DritaExpected goals in this matchVeleshta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.89

Drita

1.17

Veleshta

0.89

Drita creates 31% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 13 away

1.10

creates per match

0.92

0.86

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Drita

1.10

Veleshta

0.92

allows per match

Drita

0.86

Veleshta

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Drita+0.00on par

Veleshta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drita ↓

Veleshta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Drita or draw

72%

Drita or Veleshta

70%

Draw or Veleshta

58%

Winning margin

Drita wins by 2+

18%

Veleshta wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Drita 1+ goals

69%

Drita 2+ goals

33%

Drita 3+ goals

11%

Veleshta 1+ goals

59%

Veleshta 2+ goals

22%

Veleshta 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Drita (draw refunded)

60%

Veleshta (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drita at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Veleshta away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drita attack 1.10 + Veleshta defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.17

Veleshta attack 0.92 + Drita defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Drita scores more

42%

level

30%

Veleshta scores more

28%

Drita at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Drita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff