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Drita vs Vardar Forino — Second League 2019

Drita
Drita
FT
1 – 0
Vardar Forino
Vardar Forino
9/28/2019Second LeagueSecond League · West - 6Stadion Bogovinje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Drita54%
×Draw27%
Vardar Forino19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Drita
1.46
Vardar Forino
0.74

Drita creates 97% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 16 away

creates per match

Drita
1.10
Vardar Forino
0.63

allows per match

Drita
0.86
Vardar Forino
1.81

finishing

Drita+0.00on par
Vardar Forino+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drita ↓

Vardar Forino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Drita or draw
81%
Drita or Vardar Forino
73%
Draw or Vardar Forino
46%

Winning margin

Drita wins by 2+
28%
Vardar Forino wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Drita 1+ goals
77%
Drita 2+ goals
43%
Drita 3+ goals
18%
Vardar Forino 1+ goals
52%
Vardar Forino 2+ goals
17%
Vardar Forino 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Drita (draw refunded)
74%
Vardar Forino (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drita at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Vardar Forino away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drita attack 1.10 + Vardar Forino defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.46

Vardar Forino attack 0.63 + Drita defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Drita scores more
54%
level
27%
Vardar Forino scores more
19%

Drita at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Drita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Drita vs Vardar Forino

Drita beat Vardar Forino 1-0 in Second League on September 28, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Bogovinje in Bogovinje.