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Drita vs Ulpiana — Superliga 2019

Drita
Drita
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ulpiana
Ulpiana
12/11/2021SuperligaSuperliga · Round 18Stadiumi i qytetit Gjilan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Drita64%
×Draw21%
Ulpiana14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Drita
1.90
Ulpiana
0.76

Drita creates 150% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 18 away

creates per match

Drita
1.85
Ulpiana
0.89

allows per match

Drita
0.63
Ulpiana
1.94

finishing

Drita+0.00on par
Ulpiana+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drita ↓

Ulpiana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Drita or draw
86%
Drita or Ulpiana
79%
Draw or Ulpiana
36%

Winning margin

Drita wins by 2+
39%
Ulpiana wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Drita 1+ goals
85%
Drita 2+ goals
56%
Drita 3+ goals
29%
Ulpiana 1+ goals
53%
Ulpiana 2+ goals
18%
Ulpiana 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Drita (draw refunded)
82%
Ulpiana (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drita at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.63 · 125 matches

Ulpiana away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drita attack 1.85 + Ulpiana defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.90

Ulpiana attack 0.89 + Drita defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Drita scores more
64%
level
21%
Ulpiana scores more
14%

Drita at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Drita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Drita 3 – 1 Ulpiana

Drita beat Ulpiana 3-1 in Superliga on December 11, 2021.

The match was played at Stadiumi i qytetit Gjilan in Gnjilane.