Drita 3–0 Rilindja 1974: Result & Stats | Cup

Drita

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Rilindja 1974

2/4/2024

Cup · Round of 16Stadiumi i qytetit Gjilan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Drita66%

×Draw23%

Rilindja 197411%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DritaExpected goals in this matchRilindja 1974

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.50

Drita

1.66

Rilindja 1974

0.50

Drita creates 232% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

1.56

creates per match

0.00

1.00

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Drita

1.56

Rilindja 1974

0.00

allows per match

Drita

1.00

Rilindja 1974

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Drita+0.00on par

Rilindja 1974+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drita ↓

Rilindja 1974 →

0–012%

0–16%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–019%

1–110%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3–09%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–04%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Drita or draw

89%

Drita or Rilindja 1974

77%

Draw or Rilindja 1974

34%

Winning margin

Drita wins by 2+

38%

Rilindja 1974 wins by 2+

Team goals

Drita 1+ goals

81%

Drita 2+ goals

49%

Drita 3+ goals

23%

Rilindja 1974 1+ goals

39%

Rilindja 1974 2+ goals

Rilindja 1974 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Drita (draw refunded)

86%

Rilindja 1974 (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Drita at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Rilindja 1974 away — creates 0.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Drita attack 1.56 + Rilindja 1974 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.66

Rilindja 1974 attack 0.00 + Drita defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 66%?"

Drita scores more

66%

level

23%

Rilindja 1974 scores more

11%

Drita at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Drita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff