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Drita vs Llapi — Cup 2019

Drita
Drita
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Llapi
Llapiadvanced
2/10/2026CupCup · Round of 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Drita32%
×Draw26%
Llapi42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Drita
1.25
Llapi
1.46

Llapi creates 17% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 14 away

creates per match

Drita
1.56
Llapi
1.93

allows per match

Drita
1.00
Llapi
0.93

finishing

Drita+0.00on par
Llapi+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drita ↓

Llapi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Drita or draw
58%
Drita or Llapi
74%
Draw or Llapi
68%

Winning margin

Drita wins by 2+
14%
Llapi wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Drita 1+ goals
71%
Drita 2+ goals
36%
Drita 3+ goals
13%
Llapi 1+ goals
77%
Llapi 2+ goals
43%
Llapi 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Drita (draw refunded)
44%
Llapi (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drita at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Llapi away — creates 1.93, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drita attack 1.56 + Llapi defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.25

Llapi attack 1.93 + Drita defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Drita scores more
32%
level
26%
Llapi scores more
42%

Llapi at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Llapi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Drita 1 – 2 Llapi

Llapi beat Drita 2-1 in Cup on February 10, 2026.