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Drita vs Liria Prizren — Cup 2019

Drita
Drita
FT
1 – 2
Liria Prizren
Liria Prizrenadvanced
11/23/2022CupCup · Round of 32Stadiumi me bar sintetik Gjilan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Drita58%
×Draw22%
Liria Prizren19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Drita
1.91
Liria Prizren
1.00

Drita creates 91% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

creates per match

Drita
1.56
Liria Prizren
1.00

allows per match

Drita
1.00
Liria Prizren
2.25

finishing

Drita+0.00on par
Liria Prizren+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drita ↓

Liria Prizren →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Drita or draw
81%
Drita or Liria Prizren
78%
Draw or Liria Prizren
42%

Winning margin

Drita wins by 2+
34%
Liria Prizren wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Drita 1+ goals
85%
Drita 2+ goals
57%
Drita 3+ goals
30%
Liria Prizren 1+ goals
63%
Liria Prizren 2+ goals
26%
Liria Prizren 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Drita (draw refunded)
75%
Liria Prizren (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drita at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Liria Prizren away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drita attack 1.56 + Liria Prizren defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.91

Liria Prizren attack 1.00 + Drita defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Drita scores more
58%
level
22%
Liria Prizren scores more
19%

Drita at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Drita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Drita vs Liria Prizren

Liria Prizren beat Drita 2-1 in Cup on November 23, 2022.

The match was played at Stadiumi me bar sintetik Gjilan in Gnjilane.