Drita 0–0 Labunishta: Result & Stats

Drita

FT

0 – 0

Labunishta

11/25/2020

Second League · West - 13Stadion Bogovinje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Drita49%

×Draw30%

Labunishta21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DritaExpected goals in this matchLabunishta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.68

Drita

1.21

Labunishta

0.68

Drita creates 78% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 22 away

1.10

creates per match

0.50

0.86

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Drita

1.10

Labunishta

0.50

allows per match

Drita

0.86

Labunishta

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Drita+0.00on par

Labunishta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drita ↓

Labunishta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Drita or draw

79%

Drita or Labunishta

70%

Draw or Labunishta

51%

Winning margin

Drita wins by 2+

22%

Labunishta wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Drita 1+ goals

70%

Drita 2+ goals

34%

Drita 3+ goals

12%

Labunishta 1+ goals

49%

Labunishta 2+ goals

15%

Labunishta 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Drita (draw refunded)

70%

Labunishta (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drita at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Labunishta away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.32 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drita attack 1.10 + Labunishta defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.21

Labunishta attack 0.50 + Drita defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Drita scores more

49%

level

30%

Labunishta scores more

21%

Drita at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Drita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff