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Drita vs Korab Debar — Second League 2019

Drita
Drita
FT
3 – 1
Korab Debar
Korab Debar
9/1/2019Second LeagueSecond League · West - 2Stadion Bogovinje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Drita48%
×Draw28%
Korab Debar24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Drita
1.36
Korab Debar
0.86

Drita creates 58% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 21 away

creates per match

Drita
1.10
Korab Debar
0.86

allows per match

Drita
0.86
Korab Debar
1.62

finishing

Drita+0.00on par
Korab Debar+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drita ↓

Korab Debar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Drita or draw
76%
Drita or Korab Debar
72%
Draw or Korab Debar
52%

Winning margin

Drita wins by 2+
23%
Korab Debar wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Drita 1+ goals
74%
Drita 2+ goals
39%
Drita 3+ goals
16%
Korab Debar 1+ goals
58%
Korab Debar 2+ goals
21%
Korab Debar 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Drita (draw refunded)
67%
Korab Debar (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drita at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Korab Debar away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.62 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drita attack 1.10 + Korab Debar defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.36

Korab Debar attack 0.86 + Drita defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Drita scores more
48%
level
28%
Korab Debar scores more
24%

Drita at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Drita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Drita 3–1 Korab Debar

Drita beat Korab Debar 3-1 in Second League on September 1, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Bogovinje in Bogovinje.