Drita 2–1 Inter Club d'Escaldes: Result & Stats

Drita

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Inter Club d'Escaldes

8/8/2020

UEFA Champions League · Preliminary round 1Centre sportif de Colovray

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Drita40%

×Draw26%

Inter Club d'Escaldes34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DritaExpected goals in this matchInter Club d'Escaldes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.30

Drita

1.42

Inter Club d'Escaldes

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.00

creates per match

1.00

1.60

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Drita

1.00

Inter Club d'Escaldes

1.00

allows per match

Drita

1.60

Inter Club d'Escaldes

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Drita+0.00on par

Inter Club d'Escaldes+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drita ↓

Inter Club d'Escaldes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Drita or draw

66%

Drita or Inter Club d'Escaldes

74%

Draw or Inter Club d'Escaldes

60%

Winning margin

Drita wins by 2+

19%

Inter Club d'Escaldes wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Drita 1+ goals

76%

Drita 2+ goals

41%

Drita 3+ goals

17%

Inter Club d'Escaldes 1+ goals

73%

Inter Club d'Escaldes 2+ goals

37%

Inter Club d'Escaldes 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Drita (draw refunded)

54%

Inter Club d'Escaldes (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drita at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Inter Club d'Escaldes away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drita attack 1.00 + Inter Club d'Escaldes defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.42

Inter Club d'Escaldes attack 1.00 + Drita defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Drita scores more

40%

level

26%

Inter Club d'Escaldes scores more

34%

Drita at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Drita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff