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Drita vs Gjilani — Superliga 2019

Drita
Drita
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Gjilani
Gjilani
12/14/2025SuperligaSuperliga · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 124+ matches

Drita50%
×Draw26%
Gjilani24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Drita
1.52
Gjilani
0.96

Drita creates 58% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 124 away

creates per match

Drita
1.85
Gjilani
1.28

allows per match

Drita
0.63
Gjilani
1.19

finishing

Drita+0.00on par
Gjilani+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drita ↓

Gjilani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Drita or draw
76%
Drita or Gjilani
74%
Draw or Gjilani
50%

Winning margin

Drita wins by 2+
26%
Gjilani wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Drita 1+ goals
78%
Drita 2+ goals
45%
Drita 3+ goals
20%
Gjilani 1+ goals
62%
Gjilani 2+ goals
25%
Gjilani 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Drita (draw refunded)
68%
Gjilani (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drita at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.63 · 125 matches

Gjilani away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.19 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drita attack 1.85 + Gjilani defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.52

Gjilani attack 1.28 + Drita defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Drita scores more
50%
level
26%
Gjilani scores more
24%

Drita at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Drita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Drita 1 – 1 Gjilani

Drita and Gjilani drew 1-1 in Superliga on December 14, 2025.