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Drina Zvornik vs Podrinje Janja — 1st League - RS 2019

Drina Zvornik
Drina Zvornik
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Podrinje Janja
Podrinje Janja
4/9/20221st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 22Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Drina Zvornik69%
×Draw19%
Podrinje Janja12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Drina Zvornik
2.17
Podrinje Janja
0.77

Drina Zvornik creates 182% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 54 away

creates per match

Drina Zvornik
1.93
Podrinje Janja
0.80

allows per match

Drina Zvornik
0.73
Podrinje Janja
2.41

finishing

Drina Zvornik+0.00on par
Podrinje Janja+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drina Zvornik ↓

Podrinje Janja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Drina Zvornik or draw
88%
Drina Zvornik or Podrinje Janja
81%
Draw or Podrinje Janja
31%

Winning margin

Drina Zvornik wins by 2+
45%
Podrinje Janja wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Drina Zvornik 1+ goals
89%
Drina Zvornik 2+ goals
64%
Drina Zvornik 3+ goals
36%
Podrinje Janja 1+ goals
54%
Podrinje Janja 2+ goals
18%
Podrinje Janja 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Drina Zvornik (draw refunded)
85%
Podrinje Janja (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drina Zvornik at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.73 · 95 matches

Podrinje Janja away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.41 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drina Zvornik attack 1.93 + Podrinje Janja defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.17

Podrinje Janja attack 0.80 + Drina Zvornik defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Drina Zvornik scores more
69%
level
19%
Podrinje Janja scores more
12%

Drina Zvornik at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Drina Zvornik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Drina Zvornik vs Podrinje Janja

Drina Zvornik beat Podrinje Janja 1-0 in 1st League - RS on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Zvornik.