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Drina Zvornik vs Leotar — 1st League - RS 2019

Drina Zvornik
Drina Zvornik
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Leotar
Leotar
11/11/20231st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 15Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Drina Zvornik56%
×Draw25%
Leotar19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Drina Zvornik
1.61
Leotar
0.81

Drina Zvornik creates 99% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 63 away

creates per match

Drina Zvornik
1.93
Leotar
0.89

allows per match

Drina Zvornik
0.73
Leotar
1.30

finishing

Drina Zvornik+0.00on par
Leotar+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drina Zvornik ↓

Leotar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Drina Zvornik or draw
81%
Drina Zvornik or Leotar
75%
Draw or Leotar
44%

Winning margin

Drina Zvornik wins by 2+
30%
Leotar wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Drina Zvornik 1+ goals
80%
Drina Zvornik 2+ goals
48%
Drina Zvornik 3+ goals
22%
Leotar 1+ goals
56%
Leotar 2+ goals
19%
Leotar 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Drina Zvornik (draw refunded)
75%
Leotar (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drina Zvornik at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.73 · 95 matches

Leotar away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.30 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drina Zvornik attack 1.93 + Leotar defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.61

Leotar attack 0.89 + Drina Zvornik defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Drina Zvornik scores more
56%
level
25%
Leotar scores more
19%

Drina Zvornik at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Drina Zvornik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: Drina Zvornik 2–2 Leotar

Drina Zvornik and Leotar drew 2-2 in 1st League - RS on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Zvornik.