Drina Zvornik 0–1 Krupa na Vrbasu: Result & Stats

Drina Zvornik

FT

0 – 1

Krupa na Vrbasu

9/18/2021

1st League - RS · RS - 6Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Drina Zvornik37%

×Draw27%

Krupa na Vrbasu36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Drina ZvornikExpected goals in this matchKrupa na Vrbasu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.26

Drina Zvornik

1.28

Krupa na Vrbasu

1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 95 home / 39 away

1.93

creates per match

1.79

0.73

allows per match

0.64

creates per match

Drina Zvornik

1.93

Krupa na Vrbasu

1.79

allows per match

Drina Zvornik

0.73

Krupa na Vrbasu

0.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Drina Zvornik+0.00on par

Krupa na Vrbasu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drina Zvornik ↓

Krupa na Vrbasu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Drina Zvornik or draw

64%

Drina Zvornik or Krupa na Vrbasu

73%

Draw or Krupa na Vrbasu

63%

Winning margin

Drina Zvornik wins by 2+

16%

Krupa na Vrbasu wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Drina Zvornik 1+ goals

72%

Drina Zvornik 2+ goals

37%

Drina Zvornik 3+ goals

14%

Krupa na Vrbasu 1+ goals

72%

Krupa na Vrbasu 2+ goals

36%

Krupa na Vrbasu 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Drina Zvornik (draw refunded)

51%

Krupa na Vrbasu (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drina Zvornik at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.73 · 95 matches

Krupa na Vrbasu away — creates 1.79, concedes 0.64 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drina Zvornik attack 1.93 + Krupa na Vrbasu defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.28

Krupa na Vrbasu attack 1.79 + Drina Zvornik defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Drina Zvornik scores more

37%

level

27%

Krupa na Vrbasu scores more

36%

Drina Zvornik at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Drina Zvornik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff