Drezga 1–1 Lovćen: Result & Stats | Second League

Drezga

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Lovćen

6/28/2020

Second League · Round 29Stadion Drezge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Drezga31%

×Draw26%

Lovćen43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DrezgaExpected goals in this matchLovćen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.48

Drezga

1.21

Lovćen

1.48

Lovćen creates 22% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 67 away

1.06

creates per match

1.15

1.82

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Drezga

1.06

Lovćen

1.15

allows per match

Drezga

1.82

Lovćen

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Drezga+0.00on par

Lovćen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drezga ↓

Lovćen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Drezga or draw

57%

Drezga or Lovćen

74%

Draw or Lovćen

69%

Winning margin

Drezga wins by 2+

13%

Lovćen wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Drezga 1+ goals

70%

Drezga 2+ goals

34%

Drezga 3+ goals

12%

Lovćen 1+ goals

77%

Lovćen 2+ goals

43%

Lovćen 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Drezga (draw refunded)

42%

Lovćen (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drezga at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.82 · 33 matches

Lovćen away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.36 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drezga attack 1.06 + Lovćen defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.21

Lovćen attack 1.15 + Drezga defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Drezga scores more

31%

level

26%

Lovćen scores more

43%

Lovćen at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lovćen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff