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Drezga vs Ibar — Second League 2019

Drezga
Drezga
CANC
15:30
Ibar
Ibar
7/28/2020Second LeagueSecond League · Round 36

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Drezga43%
×Draw25%
Ibar32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Drezga
1.49
Ibar
1.25

Drezga creates 19% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 50 away

creates per match

Drezga
1.06
Ibar
0.68

allows per match

Drezga
1.82
Ibar
1.92

finishing

Drezga+0.00on par
Ibar+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drezga ↓

Ibar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Drezga or draw
68%
Drezga or Ibar
75%
Draw or Ibar
57%

Winning margin

Drezga wins by 2+
21%
Ibar wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Drezga 1+ goals
77%
Drezga 2+ goals
44%
Drezga 3+ goals
19%
Ibar 1+ goals
71%
Ibar 2+ goals
36%
Ibar 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Drezga (draw refunded)
57%
Ibar (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drezga at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.82 · 33 matches

Ibar away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.92 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drezga attack 1.06 + Ibar defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.49

Ibar attack 0.68 + Drezga defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Drezga scores more
43%
level
25%
Ibar scores more
32%

Drezga at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Drezga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Drezga host Ibar

July 28, 2020: Drezga take on Ibar in Second League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.