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Drezga vs Dečić — Second League 2019

Drezga
Drezga
FT
0 – 3
Dečić
Dečić
3/11/2020Second LeagueSecond League · Round 22Stadion Drezge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Drezga24%
×Draw23%
Dečić52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Drezga
1.13
Dečić
1.77

Dečić creates 57% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 15 away

creates per match

Drezga
1.06
Dečić
1.73

allows per match

Drezga
1.82
Dečić
1.20

finishing

Drezga+0.00on par
Dečić+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drezga ↓

Dečić →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Drezga or draw
48%
Drezga or Dečić
77%
Draw or Dečić
76%

Winning margin

Drezga wins by 2+
9%
Dečić wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Drezga 1+ goals
68%
Drezga 2+ goals
31%
Drezga 3+ goals
11%
Dečić 1+ goals
83%
Dečić 2+ goals
53%
Dečić 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Drezga (draw refunded)
32%
Dečić (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drezga at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.82 · 33 matches

Dečić away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drezga attack 1.06 + Dečić defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.13

Dečić attack 1.73 + Drezga defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Drezga scores more
24%
level
23%
Dečić scores more
52%

Dečić at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dečić will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Drezga vs Dečić

Dečić beat Drezga 3-0 in Second League on March 11, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Drezge in Piperi.