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Drezga vs Arsenal Tivat — Second League 2019

Drezga
Drezga
FT
0 – 1
Arsenal Tivat
Arsenal Tivat
4/24/2021Second LeagueSecond League · Round 29Stadion Drezge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Drezga29%
×Draw26%
Arsenal Tivat45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Drezga
1.16
Arsenal Tivat
1.51

Arsenal Tivat creates 30% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 51 away

creates per match

Drezga
1.06
Arsenal Tivat
1.20

allows per match

Drezga
1.82
Arsenal Tivat
1.25

finishing

Drezga+0.00on par
Arsenal Tivat+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drezga ↓

Arsenal Tivat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Drezga or draw
55%
Drezga or Arsenal Tivat
74%
Draw or Arsenal Tivat
71%

Winning margin

Drezga wins by 2+
12%
Arsenal Tivat wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Drezga 1+ goals
69%
Drezga 2+ goals
32%
Drezga 3+ goals
11%
Arsenal Tivat 1+ goals
78%
Arsenal Tivat 2+ goals
44%
Arsenal Tivat 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Drezga (draw refunded)
39%
Arsenal Tivat (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drezga at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.82 · 33 matches

Arsenal Tivat away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.25 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drezga attack 1.06 + Arsenal Tivat defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.16

Arsenal Tivat attack 1.20 + Drezga defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Drezga scores more
29%
level
26%
Arsenal Tivat scores more
45%

Arsenal Tivat at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Arsenal Tivat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Drezga 0–1 Arsenal Tivat

Arsenal Tivat beat Drezga 1-0 in Second League on April 24, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Drezge in Piperi.