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Almeboda Linneryd vs Berga — Division 2 - Södra Götaland 2019

Almeboda Linneryd
Almeboda Linneryd
FT
1 – 0
Berga
Berga
8/9/2019Division 2 - Södra GötalandDivision 2 - Södra Götaland · Round 17Kullbergsplan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Almeboda Linneryd32%
×Draw24%
Berga44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almeboda Linneryd
1.41
Berga
1.69

Berga creates 20% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 73 away

creates per match

Almeboda Linneryd
1.20
Berga
1.47

allows per match

Almeboda Linneryd
1.90
Berga
1.62

finishing

Almeboda Linneryd+0.00on par
Berga+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almeboda Linneryd ↓

Berga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Almeboda Linneryd or draw
56%
Almeboda Linneryd or Berga
76%
Draw or Berga
68%

Winning margin

Almeboda Linneryd wins by 2+
15%
Berga wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Almeboda Linneryd 1+ goals
76%
Almeboda Linneryd 2+ goals
41%
Almeboda Linneryd 3+ goals
17%
Berga 1+ goals
82%
Berga 2+ goals
50%
Berga 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Almeboda Linneryd (draw refunded)
42%
Berga (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almeboda Linneryd at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.90 · 20 matches

Berga away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.62 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almeboda Linneryd attack 1.20 + Berga defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.41

Berga attack 1.47 + Almeboda Linneryd defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Almeboda Linneryd scores more
32%
level
24%
Berga scores more
44%

Berga at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Berga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Almeboda Linneryd vs Berga

Almeboda Linneryd beat Berga 1-0 in Division 2 - Södra Götaland on August 9, 2019.

The match was played at Kullbergsplan in Rävemåla.