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Drenovets vs Peshtera Galata — Third League - Northwest 2018

Drenovets
Drenovets
CANC
15:00
Peshtera Galata
Peshtera Galata
5/11/2022Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 30Stadion Drenovets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Drenovets69%
×Draw17%
Peshtera Galata15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Drenovets
2.65
Peshtera Galata
1.15

Drenovets creates 130% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 29 away

creates per match

Drenovets
1.96
Peshtera Galata
0.69

allows per match

Drenovets
1.61
Peshtera Galata
3.34

finishing

Drenovets+0.00on par
Peshtera Galata+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drenovets ↓

Peshtera Galata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Drenovets or draw
85%
Drenovets or Peshtera Galata
83%
Draw or Peshtera Galata
31%

Winning margin

Drenovets wins by 2+
47%
Peshtera Galata wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Drenovets 1+ goals
93%
Drenovets 2+ goals
74%
Drenovets 3+ goals
48%
Peshtera Galata 1+ goals
68%
Peshtera Galata 2+ goals
32%
Peshtera Galata 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Drenovets (draw refunded)
83%
Peshtera Galata (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drenovets at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.61 · 67 matches

Peshtera Galata away — creates 0.69, concedes 3.34 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drenovets attack 1.96 + Peshtera Galata defence 3.34 → ÷2 → 2.65

Peshtera Galata attack 0.69 + Drenovets defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Drenovets scores more
69%
level
17%
Peshtera Galata scores more
15%

Drenovets at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Drenovets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Drenovets vs Peshtera Galata — Match Preview

Drenovets face Peshtera Galata on May 11, 2022 in this Third League - Northwest fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Drenovets host Peshtera Galata at Stadion Drenovets.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.