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Drenovets vs Kom Berkovitsa — Third League - Northwest 2018

Drenovets
Drenovets
FT
2 – 1
Kom Berkovitsa
Kom Berkovitsa
10/20/2019Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 11Stadion Drenovets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Drenovets51%
×Draw23%
Kom Berkovitsa26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Drenovets
1.89
Kom Berkovitsa
1.29

Drenovets creates 47% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 44 away

creates per match

Drenovets
1.96
Kom Berkovitsa
0.98

allows per match

Drenovets
1.61
Kom Berkovitsa
1.82

finishing

Drenovets+0.00on par
Kom Berkovitsa+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drenovets ↓

Kom Berkovitsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Drenovets or draw
74%
Drenovets or Kom Berkovitsa
77%
Draw or Kom Berkovitsa
49%

Winning margin

Drenovets wins by 2+
29%
Kom Berkovitsa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Drenovets 1+ goals
85%
Drenovets 2+ goals
56%
Drenovets 3+ goals
29%
Kom Berkovitsa 1+ goals
72%
Kom Berkovitsa 2+ goals
37%
Kom Berkovitsa 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Drenovets (draw refunded)
66%
Kom Berkovitsa (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drenovets at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.61 · 67 matches

Kom Berkovitsa away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.82 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drenovets attack 1.96 + Kom Berkovitsa defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.89

Kom Berkovitsa attack 0.98 + Drenovets defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Drenovets scores more
51%
level
23%
Kom Berkovitsa scores more
26%

Drenovets at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Drenovets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Drenovets vs Kom Berkovitsa

Drenovets beat Kom Berkovitsa 2-1 in Third League - Northwest on October 20, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Drenovets in Drenovets.