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Drenica Skënderaj vs Flamurtari — Superliga 2019

Drenica Skënderaj
Drenica Skënderaj
FT
3 – 1
Flamurtari
Flamurtari
3/5/2020SuperligaSuperliga · Round 21Stadiumi Bajram Aliu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Drenica Skënderaj50%
×Draw24%
Flamurtari26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Drenica Skënderaj
1.67
Flamurtari
1.13

Drenica Skënderaj creates 48% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 17 away

creates per match

Drenica Skënderaj
1.34
Flamurtari
1.00

allows per match

Drenica Skënderaj
1.25
Flamurtari
2.00

finishing

Drenica Skënderaj+0.00on par
Flamurtari+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drenica Skënderaj ↓

Flamurtari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Drenica Skënderaj or draw
74%
Drenica Skënderaj or Flamurtari
76%
Draw or Flamurtari
50%

Winning margin

Drenica Skënderaj wins by 2+
27%
Flamurtari wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Drenica Skënderaj 1+ goals
81%
Drenica Skënderaj 2+ goals
50%
Drenica Skënderaj 3+ goals
23%
Flamurtari 1+ goals
68%
Flamurtari 2+ goals
31%
Flamurtari 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Drenica Skënderaj (draw refunded)
66%
Flamurtari (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drenica Skënderaj at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.25 · 88 matches

Flamurtari away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drenica Skënderaj attack 1.34 + Flamurtari defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Flamurtari attack 1.00 + Drenica Skënderaj defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Drenica Skënderaj scores more
50%
level
24%
Flamurtari scores more
26%

Drenica Skënderaj at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Drenica Skënderaj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Drenica Skënderaj vs Flamurtari

Drenica Skënderaj beat Flamurtari 3-1 in Superliga on March 5, 2020.

The match was played at Stadiumi Bajram Aliu in Srbica.