Dreams 0–0 Tamale City: Result & Stats

Dreams

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tamale City

11/4/2022

Premier League · Round 5Dawu Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Dreams58%

×Draw27%

Tamale City15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DreamsExpected goals in this matchTamale City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.56

Dreams

1.43

Tamale City

0.56

Dreams creates 155% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 17 away

1.62

creates per match

0.41

0.71

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Dreams

1.62

Tamale City

0.41

allows per match

Dreams

0.71

Tamale City

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dreams+0.00on par

Tamale City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dreams ↓

Tamale City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Dreams or draw

85%

Dreams or Tamale City

73%

Draw or Tamale City

42%

Winning margin

Dreams wins by 2+

30%

Tamale City wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Dreams 1+ goals

76%

Dreams 2+ goals

42%

Dreams 3+ goals

17%

Tamale City 1+ goals

43%

Tamale City 2+ goals

11%

Tamale City 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Dreams (draw refunded)

80%

Tamale City (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dreams at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.71 · 109 matches

Tamale City away — creates 0.41, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dreams attack 1.62 + Tamale City defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.43

Tamale City attack 0.41 + Dreams defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Dreams scores more

58%

level

27%

Tamale City scores more

15%

Dreams at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Dreams will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

33'

59'

63'

69'

W. Yevu← W. Yevu

70'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff