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Dreams vs Nations — Premier League 2019

Dreams
Dreams
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Nations
Nations
10/6/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Tuba Astro Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Dreams53%
×Draw29%
Nations17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dreams
1.30
Nations
0.61

Dreams creates 113% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 49 away

creates per match

Dreams
1.63
Nations
0.53

allows per match

Dreams
0.70
Nations
0.98

finishing

Dreams+0.00on par
Nations+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dreams ↓

Nations →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Dreams or draw
83%
Dreams or Nations
71%
Draw or Nations
47%

Winning margin

Dreams wins by 2+
25%
Nations wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Dreams 1+ goals
73%
Dreams 2+ goals
37%
Dreams 3+ goals
14%
Nations 1+ goals
46%
Nations 2+ goals
13%
Nations 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Dreams (draw refunded)
75%
Nations (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dreams at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.70 · 108 matches

Nations away — creates 0.53, concedes 0.98 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dreams attack 1.63 + Nations defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.30

Nations attack 0.53 + Dreams defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Dreams scores more
53%
level
29%
Nations scores more
17%

Dreams at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Dreams will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dreams vs Nations

Nations beat Dreams 1-0 in Premier League on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Tuba Astro Turf in Kokrobite.