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Dreams vs Great Olympics — Premier League 2019

Dreams
Dreams
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Great Olympics
Great Olympics
A. Huzaf 82'
G. Atuahene 52'
Unknown 76'
6/3/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 33Dawu Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Dreams56%
×Draw27%
Great Olympics17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dreams
1.45
Great Olympics
0.66

Dreams creates 120% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 76 away

creates per match

Dreams
1.62
Great Olympics
0.61

allows per match

Dreams
0.71
Great Olympics
1.28

finishing

Dreams+0.00on par
Great Olympics+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dreams ↓

Great Olympics →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Dreams or draw
83%
Dreams or Great Olympics
73%
Draw or Great Olympics
44%

Winning margin

Dreams wins by 2+
29%
Great Olympics wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Dreams 1+ goals
77%
Dreams 2+ goals
42%
Dreams 3+ goals
18%
Great Olympics 1+ goals
48%
Great Olympics 2+ goals
14%
Great Olympics 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Dreams (draw refunded)
77%
Great Olympics (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dreams at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.71 · 109 matches

Great Olympics away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.28 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dreams attack 1.62 + Great Olympics defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.45

Great Olympics attack 0.61 + Dreams defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Dreams scores more
56%
level
27%
Great Olympics scores more
17%

Dreams at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Dreams will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+3'
49'
52'
G. Atuahene
65'
V. Oduro← V. Oduro
65'
D. Ishmael← D. Ishmael
76'
79'
80'
82'
A. Huzaf

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dreams vs Great Olympics

Dreams beat Great Olympics 2-1 in Premier League on June 3, 2023.

Goals: G. Atuahene (52'), ? (76'), A. Huzaf (82').

The match was played at Dawu Sports Stadium in Accra.