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Dreams vs Elmina Sharks — Premier League 2019

Dreams
Dreams
FT
2 – 0
Elmina Sharks
Elmina Sharks
6/6/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 28Dawu Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Dreams62%
×Draw24%
Elmina Sharks14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dreams
1.69
Elmina Sharks
0.65

Dreams creates 160% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 41 away

creates per match

Dreams
1.62
Elmina Sharks
0.59

allows per match

Dreams
0.71
Elmina Sharks
1.76

finishing

Dreams+0.00on par
Elmina Sharks+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dreams ↓

Elmina Sharks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Dreams or draw
86%
Dreams or Elmina Sharks
76%
Draw or Elmina Sharks
38%

Winning margin

Dreams wins by 2+
35%
Elmina Sharks wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Dreams 1+ goals
82%
Dreams 2+ goals
50%
Dreams 3+ goals
24%
Elmina Sharks 1+ goals
48%
Elmina Sharks 2+ goals
14%
Elmina Sharks 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Dreams (draw refunded)
82%
Elmina Sharks (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dreams at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.71 · 109 matches

Elmina Sharks away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.76 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dreams attack 1.62 + Elmina Sharks defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.69

Elmina Sharks attack 0.59 + Dreams defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Dreams scores more
62%
level
24%
Elmina Sharks scores more
14%

Dreams at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Dreams will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Dreams 2–0 Elmina Sharks

Dreams beat Elmina Sharks 2-0 in Premier League on June 6, 2021.

The match was played at Dawu Sports Stadium in Accra.