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Dreams vs Eleven Wonders — Premier League 2019

Dreams
Dreams
FT
5 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Eleven Wonders
Eleven Wonders
4/12/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 29Tuba Astro Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Dreams63%
×Draw23%
Eleven Wonders14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dreams
1.71
Eleven Wonders
0.65

Dreams creates 163% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 58 away

creates per match

Dreams
1.63
Eleven Wonders
0.60

allows per match

Dreams
0.70
Eleven Wonders
1.79

finishing

Dreams+0.00on par
Eleven Wonders+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dreams ↓

Eleven Wonders →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Dreams or draw
86%
Dreams or Eleven Wonders
77%
Draw or Eleven Wonders
37%

Winning margin

Dreams wins by 2+
36%
Eleven Wonders wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Dreams 1+ goals
82%
Dreams 2+ goals
51%
Dreams 3+ goals
24%
Eleven Wonders 1+ goals
48%
Eleven Wonders 2+ goals
14%
Eleven Wonders 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Dreams (draw refunded)
82%
Eleven Wonders (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dreams at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.70 · 108 matches

Eleven Wonders away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.79 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dreams attack 1.63 + Eleven Wonders defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.71

Eleven Wonders attack 0.60 + Dreams defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Dreams scores more
63%
level
23%
Eleven Wonders scores more
14%

Dreams at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Dreams will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dreams vs Eleven Wonders

Dreams beat Eleven Wonders 5-1 in Premier League on April 12, 2026.

The match was played at Tuba Astro Turf in Accra.