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Dreams vs Bofoakwe Tano — Premier League 2019

Dreams
Dreams
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Bofoakwe Tano
Bofoakwe Tano
1/10/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Dawu Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Dreams57%
×Draw27%
Bofoakwe Tano17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dreams
1.46
Bofoakwe Tano
0.65

Dreams creates 125% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 17 away

creates per match

Dreams
1.63
Bofoakwe Tano
0.59

allows per match

Dreams
0.70
Bofoakwe Tano
1.29

finishing

Dreams+0.00on par
Bofoakwe Tano+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dreams ↓

Bofoakwe Tano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Dreams or draw
83%
Dreams or Bofoakwe Tano
73%
Draw or Bofoakwe Tano
43%

Winning margin

Dreams wins by 2+
29%
Bofoakwe Tano wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Dreams 1+ goals
77%
Dreams 2+ goals
43%
Dreams 3+ goals
18%
Bofoakwe Tano 1+ goals
48%
Bofoakwe Tano 2+ goals
14%
Bofoakwe Tano 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Dreams (draw refunded)
77%
Bofoakwe Tano (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dreams at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.70 · 108 matches

Bofoakwe Tano away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dreams attack 1.63 + Bofoakwe Tano defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.46

Bofoakwe Tano attack 0.59 + Dreams defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Dreams scores more
57%
level
27%
Bofoakwe Tano scores more
17%

Dreams at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Dreams will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Dreams 3–1 Bofoakwe Tano

Dreams beat Bofoakwe Tano 3-1 in Premier League on January 10, 2024.

The match was played at Dawu Sports Stadium in Accra.