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Dreams vs Basake Holy Stars — Premier League 2019

Dreams
Dreams
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Basake Holy Stars
Basake Holy Stars
J. Esso 57'
A. Razak Salifu 43'
E. Kwame 54'
2/2/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19Tuba Astro Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Dreams65%
×Draw23%
Basake Holy Stars12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dreams
1.69
Basake Holy Stars
0.57

Dreams creates 196% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 33 away

creates per match

Dreams
1.63
Basake Holy Stars
0.45

allows per match

Dreams
0.70
Basake Holy Stars
1.76

finishing

Dreams+0.00on par
Basake Holy Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dreams ↓

Basake Holy Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Dreams or draw
88%
Dreams or Basake Holy Stars
77%
Draw or Basake Holy Stars
35%

Winning margin

Dreams wins by 2+
37%
Basake Holy Stars wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Dreams 1+ goals
82%
Dreams 2+ goals
50%
Dreams 3+ goals
24%
Basake Holy Stars 1+ goals
43%
Basake Holy Stars 2+ goals
11%
Basake Holy Stars 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Dreams (draw refunded)
84%
Basake Holy Stars (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dreams at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.70 · 108 matches

Basake Holy Stars away — creates 0.45, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dreams attack 1.63 + Basake Holy Stars defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.69

Basake Holy Stars attack 0.45 + Dreams defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Dreams scores more
65%
level
23%
Basake Holy Stars scores more
12%

Dreams at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Dreams will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
F. Oteng
27'
M. Kofi
31'
D. Agyei← D. Agyei
43'
A. Razak Salifu
47'
C. Marfo← C. Marfo
47'
A. Alhassan← A. Alhassan
54'
E. Kwame
57'
J. Esso
60'
S. Suraj← S. Suraj
60'
Y. Baafi← Y. Baafi
65'
S. A. Baffour← S. A. Baffour
74'
V. Aidoo← T. Bismark
78'
M. Aziz← M. Aziz
78'
N. Asante← N. Asante
83'
D. Agyei

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Dreams 2–1 Basake Holy Stars

Dreams beat Basake Holy Stars 2-1 in Premier League on February 2, 2025.

Goals: A. Razak Salifu (43'), E. Kwame (54'), J. Esso (57').

The match was played at Tuba Astro Turf in Kokrobite.