Dreams 1–0 Ashanti Gold: Result & Stats

Dreams

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ashanti Gold

A. Ibrahim 9'

6/5/2022

Premier League · Round 32Dawu Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Dreams55%

×Draw26%

Ashanti Gold19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DreamsExpected goals in this matchAshanti Gold

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

0.75

Dreams

1.49

Ashanti Gold

0.75

Dreams creates 99% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 43 away

1.62

creates per match

0.79

0.71

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Dreams

1.62

Ashanti Gold

0.79

allows per match

Dreams

0.71

Ashanti Gold

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dreams+0.00on par

Ashanti Gold+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dreams ↓

Ashanti Gold →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Dreams or draw

81%

Dreams or Ashanti Gold

74%

Draw or Ashanti Gold

45%

Winning margin

Dreams wins by 2+

28%

Ashanti Gold wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Dreams 1+ goals

77%

Dreams 2+ goals

44%

Dreams 3+ goals

19%

Ashanti Gold 1+ goals

53%

Ashanti Gold 2+ goals

17%

Ashanti Gold 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Dreams (draw refunded)

74%

Ashanti Gold (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dreams at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.71 · 109 matches

Ashanti Gold away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.35 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dreams attack 1.62 + Ashanti Gold defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.49

Ashanti Gold attack 0.79 + Dreams defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Dreams scores more

55%

level

26%

Ashanti Gold scores more

19%

Dreams at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Dreams will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

9'

A. Ibrahim

35'

53'

55'

58'

84'

C. Boahen← C. Boahen

90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff