Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dreams vs Aduana Stars — Premier League 2019

Dreams
Dreams
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Aduana Stars
Aduana Stars
3/9/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23Tuba Astro Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Dreams54%
×Draw27%
Aduana Stars19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dreams
1.44
Aduana Stars
0.72

Dreams creates 100% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 110 away

creates per match

Dreams
1.63
Aduana Stars
0.75

allows per match

Dreams
0.70
Aduana Stars
1.25

finishing

Dreams+0.00on par
Aduana Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dreams ↓

Aduana Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Dreams or draw
81%
Dreams or Aduana Stars
73%
Draw or Aduana Stars
46%

Winning margin

Dreams wins by 2+
27%
Aduana Stars wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Dreams 1+ goals
76%
Dreams 2+ goals
42%
Dreams 3+ goals
18%
Aduana Stars 1+ goals
51%
Aduana Stars 2+ goals
16%
Aduana Stars 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Dreams (draw refunded)
74%
Aduana Stars (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dreams at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.70 · 108 matches

Aduana Stars away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dreams attack 1.63 + Aduana Stars defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.44

Aduana Stars attack 0.75 + Dreams defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Dreams scores more
54%
level
27%
Aduana Stars scores more
19%

Dreams at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Dreams will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dreams vs Aduana Stars

Dreams and Aduana Stars drew 0-0 in Premier League on March 9, 2025.

The match was played at Tuba Astro Turf in Kokrobite.