Dravograd 7–1 Šampion Celje: Result & Stats

Dravograd

FT

7 – 1

Šampion Celje

4/24/2021

3. SNL - East · East - 10Športni center Dravograd

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Dravograd51%

×Draw20%

Šampion Celje30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DravogradExpected goals in this matchŠampion Celje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

1.84

Dravograd

2.42

Šampion Celje

1.84

Dravograd creates 32% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

2.50

creates per match

1.44

2.25

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Dravograd

2.50

Šampion Celje

1.44

allows per match

Dravograd

2.25

Šampion Celje

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dravograd+0.00on par

Šampion Celje+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dravograd ↓

Šampion Celje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Dravograd or draw

70%

Dravograd or Šampion Celje

80%

Draw or Šampion Celje

49%

Winning margin

Dravograd wins by 2+

31%

Šampion Celje wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Dravograd 1+ goals

91%

Dravograd 2+ goals

69%

Dravograd 3+ goals

43%

Šampion Celje 1+ goals

84%

Šampion Celje 2+ goals

55%

Šampion Celje 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Dravograd (draw refunded)

63%

Šampion Celje (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dravograd at home — creates 2.50, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

Šampion Celje away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dravograd attack 2.50 + Šampion Celje defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.42

Šampion Celje attack 1.44 + Dravograd defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Dravograd scores more

51%

level

20%

Šampion Celje scores more

30%

Dravograd at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Dravograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff