Dravograd 1–3 Nafta: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Dravograd

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Nafta

P. Kogelnik 32'

J. Bizjak 55', 44' (pen)

V. Vinko 17'

11/16/2019

2. SNL · Round 18Športni center Dravograd

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Dravograd24%

×Draw22%

Nafta53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DravogradExpected goals in this matchNafta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.92

Dravograd

1.23

Nafta

1.92

Nafta creates 56% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 83 away

1.20

creates per match

1.95

1.90

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Dravograd

1.20

Nafta

1.95

allows per match

Dravograd

1.90

Nafta

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dravograd+0.00on par

Nafta+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dravograd ↓

Nafta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Dravograd or draw

47%

Dravograd or Nafta

78%

Draw or Nafta

76%

Winning margin

Dravograd wins by 2+

10%

Nafta wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Dravograd 1+ goals

71%

Dravograd 2+ goals

35%

Dravograd 3+ goals

13%

Nafta 1+ goals

85%

Nafta 2+ goals

57%

Nafta 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Dravograd (draw refunded)

31%

Nafta (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dravograd at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

Nafta away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.25 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dravograd attack 1.20 + Nafta defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Nafta attack 1.95 + Dravograd defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Dravograd scores more

24%

level

22%

Nafta scores more

53%

Nafta at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Nafta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

V. Vinko

32'

P. Kogelnik

44'

J. BizjakPenalty

55'

J. Bizjak

62'

A. Gluhovič← Ž. Rožej

62'

T. Stefanović← S. Dobaj

62'

A. Ploj← M. Rebernik

76'

D. Rogina← A. Pešl

76'

A. Zagorec← M. Novinič

89'

D. Szökrönyös← S. Oštrek

Dravograd

Nafta

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: B. Kus

62'▲A. Gluhovič←▼Ž. Rožej

62'▲T. Stefanović←▼S. Dobaj

76'▲D. Rogina←▼A. Pešl

Dravograd substitutes

GluhovičStefanovićRoginaBevkValentePetekSmrtnik

Manager: A. Stegne

62'▲A. Ploj←▼M. Rebernik

76'▲A. Zagorec←▼M. Novinič

89'▲D. Szökrönyös←▼S. Oštrek

Nafta substitutes

PlojZagorecSzökrönyösKamarásLeuštekŠerugaGaloši