Dravograd 0–2 Krško: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Dravograd

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Krško

L. Čirjak 58' (pen), 52'

9/28/2019

2. SNL · Round 11Športni center Dravograd

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Dravograd38%

×Draw24%

Krško37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DravogradExpected goals in this matchKrško

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.48

Dravograd

1.50

Krško

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 66 away

1.20

creates per match

1.05

1.90

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Dravograd

1.20

Krško

1.05

allows per match

Dravograd

1.90

Krško

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dravograd+0.00on par

Krško+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dravograd ↓

Krško →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Dravograd or draw

63%

Dravograd or Krško

76%

Draw or Krško

62%

Winning margin

Dravograd wins by 2+

18%

Krško wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Dravograd 1+ goals

78%

Dravograd 2+ goals

44%

Dravograd 3+ goals

19%

Krško 1+ goals

77%

Krško 2+ goals

43%

Krško 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Dravograd (draw refunded)

51%

Krško (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dravograd at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

Krško away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.80 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dravograd attack 1.20 + Krško defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.50

Krško attack 1.05 + Dravograd defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dravograd scores more

38%

level

24%

Krško scores more

37%

Dravograd at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Dravograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'

L. Čirjak

57'

M. Verstovšek← E. Adomako

58'

L. ČirjakPenalty

59'

Ž. Jurečič← I. Regvar

61'

S. Dobaj← Ž. Rožej

72'

D. Bevk← A. Pešl

82'

M. Puškarić← Z. Pamić

90+3'

N. Krošelj← E. Sokler

Dravograd

Krško

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

Manager: B. Kus

57'▲M. Verstovšek←▼E. Adomako

61'▲S. Dobaj←▼Ž. Rožej

72'▲D. Bevk←▼A. Pešl

Dravograd substitutes

VerstovšekDobajBevkVošnjakRačnikBaričBrzin

Manager: I. Kapušin

59'▲Ž. Jurečič←▼I. Regvar

82'▲M. Puškarić←▼Z. Pamić

90+3'▲N. Krošelj←▼E. Sokler

Krško substitutes

JurečičPuškarićKrošeljFortunaRedekŠolčićAnković