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Dravograd vs Korotan Prevalje — 3. SNL - East 2020

Dravograd
Dravograd
FT
2 – 0
Korotan Prevalje
Korotan Prevalje
8/29/20203. SNL - East3. SNL - East · East - 2Športni center Dravograd

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Dravograd46%
×Draw21%
Korotan Prevalje33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dravograd
2.06
Korotan Prevalje
1.73

Dravograd creates 19% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 19 away

creates per match

Dravograd
2.50
Korotan Prevalje
1.21

allows per match

Dravograd
2.25
Korotan Prevalje
1.63

finishing

Dravograd+0.00on par
Korotan Prevalje+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dravograd ↓

Korotan Prevalje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Dravograd or draw
67%
Dravograd or Korotan Prevalje
79%
Draw or Korotan Prevalje
54%

Winning margin

Dravograd wins by 2+
26%
Korotan Prevalje wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Dravograd 1+ goals
87%
Dravograd 2+ goals
61%
Dravograd 3+ goals
34%
Korotan Prevalje 1+ goals
82%
Korotan Prevalje 2+ goals
52%
Korotan Prevalje 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Dravograd (draw refunded)
58%
Korotan Prevalje (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dravograd at home — creates 2.50, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

Korotan Prevalje away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dravograd attack 2.50 + Korotan Prevalje defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 2.06

Korotan Prevalje attack 1.21 + Dravograd defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dravograd scores more
46%
level
21%
Korotan Prevalje scores more
33%

Dravograd at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dravograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dravograd vs Korotan Prevalje

Dravograd beat Korotan Prevalje 2-0 in 3. SNL - East on August 29, 2020.

The match was played at Športni center Dravograd in Dravograd.