Dravograd 0–2 Fužinar: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Dravograd

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Fužinar

T. Trdina 71'

Ž. Medved 60'

10/12/2019

2. SNL · Round 13Športni center Dravograd

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Dravograd36%

×Draw24%

Fužinar41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DravogradExpected goals in this matchFužinar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.63

Dravograd

1.52

Fužinar

1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 64 away

1.20

creates per match

1.36

1.90

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Dravograd

1.20

Fužinar

1.36

allows per match

Dravograd

1.90

Fužinar

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dravograd+0.00on par

Fužinar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dravograd ↓

Fužinar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Dravograd or draw

59%

Dravograd or Fužinar

76%

Draw or Fužinar

64%

Winning margin

Dravograd wins by 2+

17%

Fužinar wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Dravograd 1+ goals

78%

Dravograd 2+ goals

45%

Dravograd 3+ goals

20%

Fužinar 1+ goals

80%

Fužinar 2+ goals

48%

Fužinar 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Dravograd (draw refunded)

47%

Fužinar (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dravograd at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

Fužinar away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.83 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dravograd attack 1.20 + Fužinar defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.52

Fužinar attack 1.36 + Dravograd defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dravograd scores more

36%

level

24%

Fužinar scores more

41%

Fužinar at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fužinar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'

N. Fasvald← K. Kovač

60'

Ž. Medved

66'

A. Gluhovič← Ž. Rožej

71'

T. Trdina

74'

A. Pešl← M. Verstovšek

74'

S. Dobaj← D. Rogina

76'

J. Grubelnik← A. Paradiž

85'

M. Verhovnik← T. Trdina

Dravograd

Fužinar

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: B. Kus

66'▲A. Gluhovič←▼Ž. Rožej

74'▲A. Pešl←▼M. Verstovšek

74'▲S. Dobaj←▼D. Rogina

Dravograd substitutes

GluhovičPešlDobajBevkValenteBrzinSmrtnik

Manager: A. Tomažič

58'▲N. Fasvald←▼K. Kovač

76'▲J. Grubelnik←▼A. Paradiž

85'▲M. Verhovnik←▼T. Trdina

Fužinar substitutes

FasvaldGrubelnikVerhovnikVeršovnikPipušMarčičKnez